'Digger' Digs Up Doubts: A Star-studded Gamble for Warner Bros

So Tom Cruise does it again. Crawling up buildings, leaping off aircraft, and now – charming us all in an R-rated comedy? Hold onto your popcorn folks, because Tom is jumping genres! The high-stakes gamble is a star-studded addition to your autumn watch list: introducing "Digger," scheduled to hit theaters on October 2nd.

“Digger” is the brainchild of Warner Bros. Now, ordinarily a Warner Bros release in fall is cause for celebration. But, given their lackluster box office performance this year (RIP “The Bride!” and “Supergirl”), getting a standing ovation with “Digger” has become an absolute must - especially if it wants to impress its would-be parent company, Paramount Skydance.

The comedy featuring everybody's favorite action hero Cruise, as an unrecognizable oil tycoon who isn’t exactly eco-conscious, keeps facing dwindling projections. Rumor has it, prognoses that originally pegged the launch to rake in between $18 million to $20 million have been shaded down to an underwhelming $12 million to $15 million.

How's that for autumn leaves falling?

To add to the expenses, the film that was given a green light at $125 million may have climbed up to $180 million, overrunning schedule. That explanation, however, has a competing narrative from Warner Bros. With marketing and ticket sales cuts factored in, “Digger” would need to pull in a substantial $350 million worldwide to break-even. Warner Bros., the purported optimist, believes $300 million should do the trick.

Mission: Impossible? Maybe not! With Tom's worldwide stardom, “Digger” might indeed dig deep pockets overseas. But there's a bonus for Cruise – he gets first-dollar gross, meaning he cashes in before the studio does.

While there’s a reason to praise Warner Bros. for this bold move, Jeff Bock of Exhibitor Relations can't help himself but muse on Cruise's genre hopping. “Let’s be truthful. He’s a franchise machine. Is it easy to accept him as a transformative actor again after he’s cemented himself as the action hero?”

"Digger" is the first unsequel Cruise vehicle since 2017’s smash hit “American Made.” The action veteran of the 80s, Cruise has made big bucks with his consistent performances in the “Mission: Impossible” franchise, charming younger audiences with 2022’s mega hit “Top Gun: Maverick.” But even he hasn't been immune to dwindling box office returns, suggesting audiences are becoming wary of franchise fatigue.

Cruise isn't leaving it up to chance, however. He’s single-handedly waving the “Digger” banner, even making a rare appearance on Travis and Jason Kelce’s podcast “New Heights” and featuring on the cover of a GQ magazine after two decades. Despite his efforts to stay off personal topics and steer the conversation towards film, the “Digger” sell feels like an uphill battle. “His name alone isn’t going to sell it,” warns Bock.

While the financial terrain is treacherous, Warner Bros. co-chairs Pamela Abdy and Michael De Luca pinned their hopes on "Digger", with Iñárritu, the commercial hitmaker. His track record including “The Revenant” and “Birdman” are known for bagging boatloads of money and multiple awards, and it's this combination of star power and celebrated direction the duo hopes will recreate wonders.

David A. Gross of Franchise Re explains, “The combination of an accomplished auteur and a top star has resulted in some very interesting and successful pictures… But the movie has to connect and satisfy broad tastes. If word-of-mouth is poor, the film is going to struggle.”

Looking ahead, Warner Bros. hopes to recover some lost magic with “Dune: Part III” in December. The wildly anticipated third chapter of Denis Villeneuve’s sci-fi series has skyrocketing expectations. But before it can set foot on the desert planet of Arrakis, it has some messy mop work to do. Multiple flops including “The Bride!”, “Supergirl” and “The End of Oak Street” have left the studio reeling in losses.

Overall, it’s been a tough year for Warner Bros. Its competitors aren't faring much better either. Paramount had modest successes with “Scary Movie” and “Scream”, but it barely commands 5% of the domestic marketshare.

While the occasional flop is part of the game, it begs the question of whether creative gambles can be balanced with secure wins in such testing times. David Gross reminds us, “Ancillary income… is an essential part of the equation for every studio movie. That is where a star like Tom Cruise pays back.”

Despite the skepticism, Warner Bros. remains resilient, asserting, “We believe the business is better served with studios taking bold swings on originals.” The bigger question then is not about the gamble, but about the dealmaking and budgeting. As one industry source points out, “It’s not about the movies. It comes down to the dealmaking and the budgets.”